Professor John Curtice said the SNP "don't really have to worry" about losing supporters to Nigel Farage - unlike Scottish Labour and the Conservatives.
News Chris McCall Deputy Political Editor 09:28, 20 Apr 2025
The rise in support for Reform in Scotland is "good news" for John Swinney as it further splits the pro-Union vote, the country's top pollster has said.
Professor John Curtice said the SNP "don't really have to worry" about the right-wing populist party as pro-independence supporters are unlikely to back them.
But the opposite is true for Scottish Labour and the Conservatives who both face their vote being squeezed by Farage's latest political outfit.
Reform still has no Scottish leader, no distinct set of Scottish policies and has yet to win an election north of the Border.
But current polls suggest it is on course to return more than 10 MSPs at the Holyrood election in May 2026.
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Before then it faces a tough test in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election called for June 5.
The electoral contest in South Lanarkshire is in a former Labour heartland that has tended to vote for the SNP for much of the last decade.
The impact of Reform could play a role in deciding the eventual winner of the by-election, Curtice suggested.
The polling expert said he would expect Nigel Farage to campaign in Hamilton in the coming weeks as he's "the one person everybody's head of" in the party.
It comes after the Reform leader suggested yesterday he would prefer the SNP to continue in government at Holyrood - and ruled out supporting any bid to make Anas Sarwar the next First Minister.
Curtice said: "Reform are where they are because of Nigel Farage. He absolutely has to turn up and contest everything Reform are hoping to fight, as he's the one person everybody's heard of.
"He's marmite. But for the constituency they're to appeal, he's box office.
Curtice added: "The SNP don't really have to worry about Reform. If you look at the polls, virtually no one who voted for the SNP last summer is going to Reform.
"Reform are splitting the Unionist vote. The rise of Reform is good news for John Swinney, not that he will admit it.
"But the best thing for the SNP would be to regain the independence supporters who were voting for Labour last time. That's the challenge John Swinney between now and next May.
"The SNP vote is up a wee bit from last summer. But the reason the SNP's electoral prospects have been transformed in the last 12 months is the decline of Labour.
"Reform have played a role in that decline."
In a rare intervention on Scottish politics, Farage said yesterday: "We're not doing a deal with Labour. No, we're just not going to do it.
"I'm not that worried about the SNP. Yes, they're going to have a resurgence. Scotland is not going to leave the United Kingdom. It's not going to happen in a month of Sundays."
Swinney swiftly distanced himself from Farage and ruled out his party making any deals with Reform.
"Just so everyone knows, there will never be any deals, under any circumstances, between the SNP and Nigel Farage," the First Minister said. "The SNP stand against his divisive politics."
Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour's deputy leader, said: "This comment from Nigel Farage tells you everything you need to know - a vote for Reform is a vote for the SNP. Reform isn't going to stand up to the SNP, they are going to help them back into power."
Rachael Hamilton, deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives, said: "Nigel Farage's party handed several seats to the SNP in last year's general election and now it seems they're happy to hand John Swinney another five years in power."
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